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Models and Scenarios

MFA generates a quantitative understanding of material flows in a system and thereby provides a basis for system optimization. Optimization of material flow systems is typically not done using formal optimization models, but based on the comparison of alternative management scenarios. Especially, estimation of future flows is an important information for environmental policy.

Projections for demand and/or supply of raw materials are made based on scenarios, which allow transforming certain assumptions into mathematical functions, which then provide scenario results. Different MFA approaches and drivers will be analysed and listed. MFA approaches on different levels are available and will be evaluated:

  • Static and dynamic
  • Top-down and Bottom-Up
  • Flow and stock driven
  • Leaching and delay¬†

Within MinFuture, a common methodology will be compiled to improve data generation, to report in a system context and to understand the data network (e.g. who produces what data). This methodology can further be used to develop forecast scenario, to track global raw material flows between economies or to routinely account and manage resources.

MinFuture Deliverable D3.1

The brief presents key discussion items and main findings from the June 2017 Workshop in Vienna. In order to tackle challenges such as insufficient information flows or lacking data availability, a (more) systemic understanding of global mineral raw material flows is needed. Mapping the system context and making data/information gaps explicit will help identifying possible improvements.

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World Bank report

Climate and greenhouse gas scenarios have typically paid scant attention to the metal implications necessary to realize a low/zero carbon future. This World Bank Report examines which metals will likely rise in demand to be able to deliver on a carbon-constrained future. It maps production and reserve levels of relevant metals globally and identifies critical research gaps.


Leaders and other change agents from government, business, research and NGOs will talk about how to accelerate the Resource Revolution. The World Resource Forum (WRF) 2017 is open to key stakeholders and offers first-hand information about emerging issues, global trends, progress and innovation in resources and raw materials management.

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