Back to top

Models and Scenarios

MFA generates a quantitative understanding of material flows in a system and thereby provides a basis for system optimization. Optimization of material flow systems is typically not done using formal optimization models, but based on the comparison of alternative management scenarios. Especially, estimation of future flows is an important information for environmental policy.

Projections for demand and/or supply of raw materials are made based on scenarios, which allow transforming certain assumptions into mathematical functions, which then provide scenario results. Different MFA approaches and drivers will be analysed and listed. MFA approaches on different levels are available and will be evaluated:

  • Static and dynamic
  • Top-down and Bottom-Up
  • Flow and stock driven
  • Leaching and delay 

Within MinFuture, a common methodology will be compiled to improve data generation, to report in a system context and to understand the data network (e.g. who produces what data). This methodology can further be used to develop forecast scenario, to track global raw material flows between economies or to routinely account and manage resources.

This figure shows a sankey diagram of global steel flows from steelmaking to end-use goods. The width of the different arrows represent quantities flowing from one life cycle stage to the next; the thicker the arrow, the larger the quantities.
Result
MinFuture deliverable D3.2

MinFuture is a collaborative project funded by the Horizon 2020 framework, aiming to identify, integrate, and develop expertise for global material flow analysis and scenario modelling.

Event

This workshop is part of an EU Horizon 2020 project MinFuture (Global material flows and demand-supply forecasting for mineral strategies...

Event

This workshop is part of an EU Horizon 2020 project MinFuture (Global material flows and demand-supply forecasting for mineral strategies; see details in the flyer attached or the project website: http://minfuture.eu/).

Result

The MinFuture workshop synthesis brief describes the main insights from discussions on:

  • How can we add more relevance and credibility to data published on raw materials? What context is missing that might enhance their status? How could we present data using a systemic MFA? perspective
  • How do raw material data reporting schemes (information flows) currently operate at national, regional and global level?
  • What raw material indicators are often used to identify issues with raw material supply/ demand? What are their strengths and weaknesses and how do they relate to material flow analysis?
Event

Aimed at developing a common framework to analyse global mineral raw material flows, which can be agreed and used at international level, the MinFuture project intends to support data collectors, providers and users. Improving knowledge and quality of data on material cycles was found to be essential, but is faced with challenges such as interrupted information flows or lacking data availability. The first MinFuture Workshop (‘Methodology workshop’) served to discuss how MinFuture could support key data providers and users.

Group photo of the participants of the 2nd MinFuture workshop
Event

The purpose of this workshop was to initiate a dialogue with key stakeholders that report raw materials data, use data to develop MFA models, or use MFA models to inform decision making. The knowledge and needs of data providers, users and decision actors are different, but in order for a ‘common approach’ to be developed their input is required.

Result
MinFuture Deliverable D3.1

The brief presents key discussion items and main findings from the June 2017 Workshop in Vienna. In order to tackle challenges such as insufficient information flows or lacking data availability, a (more) systemic understanding of global mineral raw material flows is needed. Mapping the system context and making data/information gaps explicit will help identifying possible improvements.

cover of  report
News
World Bank report

Climate and greenhouse gas scenarios have typically paid scant attention to the metal implications necessary to realize a low/zero carbon future. This World Bank Report examines which metals will likely rise in demand to be able to deliver on a carbon-constrained future. It maps production and reserve levels of relevant metals globally and identifies critical research gaps.

Event

Leaders and other change agents from government, business, research and NGOs will talk about how to accelerate the Resource Revolution. The World Resource Forum (WRF) 2017 is open to key stakeholders and offers first-hand information about emerging issues, global trends, progress and innovation in resources and raw materials management.

Subscribe to Models and Scenarios