MinFuture project aims to develop a common methodological framework for monitoring the physical economy and to deliver clarity on the different components of MFA needed for monitoring the physical economy.

WP2 identifies and assesses barriers for the implementation of global material flow analyses in the seven MFA-related components: i) Systems; ii) Data; iii) Models & Scenarios; iv) Uncertainty; v) Indicators; vi) Visualization; and vii) Strategy & Decision Support. WP3 investigates the state-of-the-art of global material flow analysis with foci on the component 3-6.

The main objective of this report (D4.1) is to illustrate the use of the framework developed in WP2 and WP3 by pilot studies of raw materials and how the seven components can be addressed for the selected raw materials. The illustration of the framework will start from a zoomed-in assessment of literature and on-going efforts regarding selected case raw materials. Based on the literature assessment, we conduct pilot studies to illustrate:

• How to define the system definition that can facilitate characterise stocks and flows of primary materials, secondary materials, international trade, and all the end-use sectors in the global cycles of selected materials in order to enable effective access to material information?

• How to solve/identify gaps and inconsistencies in data availability and quality of all relevant goods that contain the selected materials?
• How to choose proper model approaches, drivers, and scenario techniques in demand-supply forecasting modelling of selected materials?
• How to assess uncertainties in parameters and data and their impacts on the final results?
• How to select proper indicators in order to systematically monitor the physical economy and avoid skewed policy making?
• How to design a visualization tool that can best convey the key messages from MFA results to support decision and policy making?
• How to conceive and conduct a MFA that can enhance the system understanding and guide system interventions?